DJI, Nasdaq and S&P 500 are heading for big crash soon.

Based on the current economy conditions, a major crash is expected between Oct 22nd to Nov 22nd, 2011 unless there is a big change in the fiscal policy. I am shocked to see that the lows of DJI and  S&P500 in 2011 are at the same level as it was in 2008. If the stock crashes, I believe the DJI will go as low as 8095, S&P 500 at 760 and Nasdaq at 1654 points. This number was calculated based on the historical data low's data for each indexes.

Below are the historical lows for Dow Jones Industrial Average from 2001 - 2011.
2001: Sep 21     8235
2002: Oct 04     7528
2003: Mar 03    7740
2004: Oct 22     9757
2005: Oct 21    10215 (This was the second highest low after Apr 10087)
2006: Jan 20     10667
2007: Mar 16    12110
2008: Mar 07   11893        Jul 11    11100         Oct 24    8378            Nov 21     8046
2009: Mar 06   6626
2010: Jul 02     9686
2011: Mar 18 11858            Aug 19     10817

 As you can see, in Mar 07th, and Jul 11th 2008, DJI was at 11893 and 11100 while on Mar, 18th and Aug 19th, 2011, it was at at 11858 and 10817 respectively. There is not much of difference between the two data. In 2008, DJI lost 793 points between the lows of Mar and Jul 2008, while in 2011, DJI lost 1041 points between lows of Mar and Aug 2011. If the stock market crashes DJI can go as low as 8095 somewhere below then Oct 24th 2008.


The historical lows for S&P 500 from 2001- 2011 are as follow:
2001: Sep 21     965
2002: Oct 04     800
2003: Mar 03    828
2004: Aug 06    1063      Oct 22    1095
2005: Apr 15    1142      Oct 21    1186
2006: Jan 20     1261   Jul 14     1236
2007: Mar 16    1387
2008: Mar 07   1293        Jul 11    1239         Oct 24    876            Nov 21     800
2009: Mar 06    683
2010: Jul 02    1022
2011: Mar 18  1279         Aug 19   1123 

In Mar 07th, and Jul 11th 2008, the S&P 500 was at 1293 and 1239 while on Mar, 18th and Aug 19th, 2011, it was at at 1279 and 1123 respectively. S&P 500 lost 54 points in 2008 from the lows of Mar and Aug, while in 2011, it has lost 156 points from the lows of Mar and Aug. If there is a crash S&P 500 would go below 760 far below Oct 24th, 2008.


Here are the historical data lows for Nasdaq.
2001: Sep 21     1423
2002: Oct 04     1139
2003: Mar 03    1305
2004: Aug 06    1757     Oct 22    1995
2005: Apr 15     1908     Oct 21    2064
2006: Jul 21      2020
2007: Mar 02    2368
2008: Mar 07    2212        Jul 11    2239         Oct 24    1552            Nov 21     1384
2009: Mar 06    1293
2010: Jul 02      2091
2011: Mar 18     2643         Aug 19   2341

 In Mar 07th, and Jul 11th 2008, the Nasdaq was at 2212 and 2239 while on Mar, 18th and Aug 19th, 2011, it was at at 2643 and 2341 respectively. Nasdaq was higher by 27 point in from the lows of 2008 while in 2011, its lower by 302 points from the lows of Mar and Aug. If the stock crashes it may go as low as  1654 little higher then Oct 24th, 2008.

Another comparison is the weekly initial claim the level for weekly claim is same as 2008 and 2011. 

 



The real GDP in 2011 is lower then 2008 during this 2nd quarter.

The condition is similar to 2008. This time it's much worse since Europe and USA are heading for recession with USA losing AAA rating and there are possibility that Greece will default. Based on the data I think DJI, Nasdaq and S&P 500 are heading for big crash soon.