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Monday, December 19, 2011

Bank stocks are cheap but stay away till S&P downgrades France: #VXX, #GLD, #AGQ, #TZA, #TVIX



Yesterday there was global sell off even US futures were down terrible before recovering. Dow has broken the key level of 11808, and S&P500 has broken key level of 1209. Now the next key level in Dow is 11718, and S&P500 is 1200. The market is still looking clue to be bullish but the fact is European and US politician are doing their best to keep the bullish market away. Things are getting out of hand but this politician think they have plenty of time to resolve things. The market has shown some patience because Hedge fund mangaer need some year end bonus and so don't get fooled by the bullish sentiment, the Global sell away is just a step away till they get bonus.


Currently VIX is at 24.50 which is good sign for December but not so good for Jan 2012 which will bring real VIX into picture. Eur/USD is at 1.3005 and Italian bond yield is at 6.91 which are near the danger level.
There is nothing in this market to be bullish, with S&P downgrade still hanging, its time to be defensive or wait for awhile to buy bullish or individual stocks. 

BAC near $4.95 is very big warning sign. If the market deteriotes further we might see BAC dropping to $4.65 and GS dropping to $75. Bank stocks look cheap but the reality is worse. Stay away from this stocks and wait till S&P downgrades France to buy bank stocks next day or at the close of that day. 

If you are holding the bank stocks then you should wait to average it. There is no important US data tomorrow, and the big one's on Thrusday like US GDP and Jobless claim . I am still bearish and not hoping any recovery soon. The market is likely to fall further from here.
Stocks likely to open low are RHT, PRS,
Stocks likely to open high are S, CLWR, ADSK

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