Till now there was only news from Europe which was shaking the market but we have another member to join this party, it's China. China is the world second largest Economy and the economic data is showing big sign of weakness. Shanghai composite is now close to March 2009 lows. This week Japan already lowered its GDP forecast. India industrial production tumbled for the first time in 2 years and lowered its GDP forecast from 9% to 7%. Russia is facing political and financial crisis, the stock exchange is near 2 year lows.
Last week, the public Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics said Brazil's GDP amounted to 583 billion dollar from July to September, with no growth from the second quarter. Such Stagnation was believed to be a consequence of a global economy still slogging at a snail's pace toward recovery from the worst recession in decades. Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega said that the economy this year would not meet previous government estimate of 3.8 % GDP and instead it would grow at 3.2 percent, while analyst are expecting 2.97 growth.
There is a hope that Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) countries will rescue Europe from their debt, but considering all this fact, I think it won't be possible. US has already said, its not lending its tax payer money to IMF. So the survival of Euro is now a big question mark, unless ECB steps in. But as per treaty, ECB can only save bank, not countries. So it will be very interesting to see how things unfold and how Euro survive. Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P500 likely to sell off further.
Europe Economic data:
In Europe, the German Economic Sentiment Index which gauges the sentiment in Europe's economic engine, should come in at -55.8 compared to a previous -55.2 reading. Greece is scheduled to sell 1.25 billion euros of six-month bills, and Spain plans to offer 12- and 18-month debt.
US economic data:
**Retail sales: M/M is expected 0.5%, any number less is bearish sign while higher is bullish sign.
***Retail sales less Autos is expected 0.4%, any number less is bearish sign while higher is bullish sign.
**Business inventories (10EST): 0.6% is expected, any number higher then 0 is bearish sign. In Oct 2008, the inventory rose to 1.49 So becareful, any spike would lead to big sell off.
****The Federal Reserve will hold its monthly monetary policy meeting Tuesday at 2.15 EST, where policymakers will address benchmark interest rates. While financial markets are expecting the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates at a very low 0.25%, language associated with this week's decision suggesting economic recovery continues sluggish could keep the greenback weaker and against the world's major economic currencies.
I think market should be up on the hope of retail sales number, but after the business inventories report it will sell off again till 2 EST. FED will decide the fate of the stock market later half of the day. Market is hoping for QE3 and it would be disappointed if FED take no action.
S&P and Fitch are going to downgrade Europe in coming month, so there is less likely FED will take any action as of now.
At this time its still not safe to invest, wait till FED decision and then take your position. I am still very bearish for this market, EU summit was a big failure. Any weakness in GLD is a buying opportunity.
Stocks likely to open higher are: URBN, SABA, YMI
Stocks likely to open lower are: VMC, DMND, NFLX
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On Dec 7th, I predicted Euro is heading toward 1.29, and today it was close to 1.31500 back to 2 year lows. On Dec 9th, I predicted Dow likely to fall 500 point and today we saw almost 240 point drop before recovering.
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