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Tuesday, January 17, 2012

How long can Wall street ignore Main street news ? LLTC, TZA, GS, USB


As said in my yesterday article, we saw higher opening not because of China GDP or Spanish bond auction but because of ECB fine tuning operation, where its printing money for the market.  http://www.freefdawatchlist.com/2012/01/stocks-higher-inpsite-of-weaker.html

ECB doesn't announce the date in advance, it just 1 day before intervention, it post the date on their website. So keep checking when is next intervention by ECB. I'll update it on this site as soon as its available on their site. Eur/Usd is likely to fall after this intervention and USD/CAD will rise.

Today Dow rallied to 12573 point, S&P rallied to 1303 point, back to July's 2011 high level. Now lets check what are the important event that happened during this time.
1. US hit its 14.3 trillion debt ceiling limit and was able to avoid default. 
2. US hit its 15.194 trillion debt ceiling limit.
3. US and France lost its AAA rating.
4. China GDP fell to 8.9%
5. US GDP came far below then 2010 level.
6. US employment rate fell because of less participation and not because of improved job outlook.
7. BAC laying off 40k, Citi laying off 4k, Kraft food laying off 1.6k, DNDN laying off 500, USPS laying off more then 100k, Border group laying off 11k and temporary holiday worker above 90k too lay off in Jan.
8. 80% of S&P500 company lowered their guidance.

This list doesn't even include Europe problem, which is already in recession. Spain, Greece, and France hitting unemployment at all time high.

Yet Stock market is back to July 2011 high level. How long can Wall street ignore the Main street news ?

Also, this is not the right season to short/ buy stocks ahead of earning. Everyone knows that last quarter was weakest, eventhough its considered to be the strongest quarter. Many of you make right prediction that stock will post loss or miss estimate, yet the stock will move higher. Just for example, AA posted loss, yet the stock opened 5% up. The latest in the series is LLTC, this stock posted missed earning by very big margin, yet the stock rallied up by 8.5%. The best thing to do this season is don't play for just earning. If your looking for dividend then buy it or else avoid it. 


If possible avoid trading and keep cash in hand. 

Economic calendar doesn't matter anymore as bad news is considered good news and good news as bad news. So I am not even mentioning whats expected and what was previous data. I'll start mentioning as soon as the market behave in normal way. For time being remember this timing. 

MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET

Producer Price Index
8:30 AM ET

Redbook
8:55 AM ET

Treasury International Capital
9:00 AM ET

Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET

Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET

The market is expected to remain flat to low. Important level to watch on dow is 12479 resistance (low), 12569 (high) and S&P500 1295, 1305 (high), and 1289 (low)

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