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Wednesday, May 30, 2012

If possible avoid this market till June 18th.

Spain is emerging a new threat to global economy but if you remember (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) PIIGS are have been causing problem for past two year. Spain 10 year yield hit 6.66 which is all time high for Spain
 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GSPG10YR:IND/chart 
Italy 10 year yield is at 5.94 http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBTPGR10:IND 
Italian ECB Draghi showed more interest in saving Italy in December, but ECB is not ready to help Spain at the moment. Some of the things to watchout tomorrow are VIX was up 15% US dollar index hit 83.08 Euro under 1.24 at two year low. This is not good sign for stock market.

Futures made sure Dow opened 100 point low and S&P500 opened 15 point low. Rest of the day Dow lost 59 point and S&P500 lost 4 point. This shows how much impact futures can leave on the market.

Tomorrow US GDP and Jobless claim will set the tone for the rest of day. Dow and S&P500 are expected to open higher based on the chart but the trend is still downward and market will close in red.
But this is news driven market. Any rumor of stimulus, easing or free money could change the direction of this market very rapidly. Keep POT, HAL, NOK, ERX, XOM, CVX, MT, WLT in your watchlist or atleast start making your own list. Ireland will be voting on Austerity  referendum and the result will be out on Friday.

Its not the right time to start fishing as the market hasn't bottomed yet. Just be on the sideline with cash and wait for the right opportunity. If possible avoid this market till June 18th.
To continue the bullish sentiment S&P500 needs to break 1318 while for bearish sentiment it needs to break 1308

To continue the bullish sentiment Dow needs to break 12472 while for bearish sentiment it needs to break 12369


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US Economic Data:


ADP Employment Report 8:15 AM ET (154k is expected, prev month was 119k; higher is bullish sign lower will be bearish sign for stock market).

GDP 8:30 AM ET (1.9 is expected, prev month was 2.2; higher is bullish sign lower will be bearish sign for stock market).

Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET (370k is expected, prev week was 370k; lower is bullish sign, higher will be bearish sign for stock market).

Chicago PMI 9:45 AM ET (56.1 is expected, prev month was 56.2; higher is bullish sign lower will be bearish sign for stock market).

EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET ( Built up in inventory is bearish sign, while decline in inventory is bullish sign for UNG)

EIA Petroleum Status Report 11:00 AM ET ( Built up in inventory is bearish sign, while decline in inventory is bullish sign for ERX, XOM, CVX)

Farm Prices 3:00 PM ET (Watch movement in POT, CF, MOS)
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Earnings before market open:  ANGN, BCM, CIEN, WILC, JOY, MOV, SBLK, OTIV

Earning after market close:  ASNa, CRDS, RLD, SAI, VRA

After hours big gainerVNET, ZUMZ, MXWL, DGIT, DND, FIG, CEL, DKT, MOV

After hours big loserLGF, HGT, QIHU, INVN, FFIV, BMRN, PACB, TIVO

Keep a close watch on Euro. Any recovery in Euro would take this market higher.

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