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| Dow expected to open flat, Fed FOMC meeting might be non event as ECB draghi holds the responsibility of rally or crash. |
It will be be seven month of wait for the stock market to officially get QE3 but the hope of QE3 was given by media not by the Fed. The economic data suggest things are slowing down globally and Fed can do nothing about it. Non of the operation launched by Fed has helped main street except wall street. Fed fomc meeting could be non event as its over hyped. At the same time, stock market is expected to remain down till ECB meeting is over on Thursday and then take direction from there.
ECB has two days to save Euro and that's the message ECB Draghi gave out in his last speech and then Germany's Merkel, Italy's Monti, France's Hollande, USA's Geithner all came to support that message. Watch out rally in GLD, SLV, AGQ if officially money is printed and at the same time DUST, GLL will rally, if there is no money printing. This market could also run out of patience if nothing comes out of ECB meeting. FXE is expected to sell off and EUO is expected to rally if nothing ECB don't cut rate by 50 bps.
Based on the chart Dow, S&P500 and Nasdaq are officially in bearish zone after 3% rally in one week and its expected to decline rest of the week and volatility is likely to rise. So watchout sharp movement in TVIX, UVXY, VXX. ECB has two days to save Euro and that's the message ECB Draghi gave out in his last speech and then Germany's Merkel, Italy's Monti, France's Hollande, USA's Geithner all came to support that message. Watch out rally in GLD, SLV, AGQ if officially money is printed and at the same time DUST, GLL will rally, if there is no money printing. This market could also run out of patience if nothing comes out of ECB meeting. FXE is expected to sell off and EUO is expected to rally if nothing ECB don't cut rate by 50 bps.
For bullish sentiment to continue, Dow needs to break 13060 and s&P500 needs to break 1382
For bearish sentiment to continue, Dow needs to break 12922 and S&P500 needs to break 1375.
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| S&P500 in bearish zone expect more sell off rest of the week. |
TVIX needs to break 3.72 to break higher side. Temporary its in bullish zone. If 3.54 is broken its falling below 3.32
UVXY needs to break 7.80 to break upside. Temporary its in bullish zone. If 7.39 breaks its going below 7.
AAPL has entered into bearish zone, if 608.73 is broken its falling below 601.
Goog has entered into bearish zone, if 527 is broken its falling below 618.
GLD has entered into bearish zone, IF 155.4 is broken, its falling below152. If 156.89 is broken it can rally very quickly on the upside.
Economic Calendar:
| TIME (ET) | REPORT | PERIOD | ACTUAL | FORECAST | PREVIOUS |
|---|
| 8:15 am | ADP employment | July | -- | 176,000 | |
| 8:58 am | Markit PMI | July | -- | 52.5 | |
| 10 am | ISM | July | 50.2% | 49.7% | |
| 10 am | Construction spending | June | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 2:15 pm | FOMC announcement | ||||
| TBA | Motor vehicle sales | July | 14.0 mln | 14.1 mln |
Global Economic Calendar
| TIME (ET) | REPORT | PERIOD | ACTUAL | PREVIOUS |
|---|
| 4 a.m. | Euro-zone manufacturing PMI | Jul | 44.1 (flash) | |
| 4:30 a.m. | U.K. manufacturing PMI | Jul | 48.6 | |
| 8 a.m. | Brazil industrial production | Jun | -0.9% | |
| 9:30 p.m. | Australia retail trade | Jun | 0.5% |
Other Events:
President Barack Obama does campaign swing through Ohio, Florida and Virginia. First of two days.
8:15 a.m.: ADP employment report for July, released by Automatic Data Processing.
9 a.m.: Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Gary Gensler testifies at hearing on the collapses of MF Global and Peregrine Financial Group and how customer funds can be better protected in the futures market, at the Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee.
10 a.m.: ISM report on factory activity in July, released by the Institute for Supply Management.
10 a.m.: Construction spending for June, released by the Commerce Department.
1 p.m.: CFPB Chairman Cordray testifies at hearing on the impact of CFPB regulations on small businesses, at the House Small Business Committee.
2:15 p.m.: Federal Reserve announcement on interest rates and monetary policy.
2:30 p.m.: Hearing on the future of the euro zone, at the Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee on European Affairs.
After Hours Percentage gainer and loser:
| Percentage Gainers | |||||||||
| Issue | Symbol | Volume | Last | Chg | % Chg | High | Low | ||
| Silicon Image | SIMG | 146,646 | $4.80 | 0.88 | 22.45 | $5.70 | $3.92 | ||
| DepoMed | DEPO | 10,309 | 5.99 | 0.47 | 8.51 | 5.99 | 5.52 | ||
| Merge Healthcare | MRGE | 30,505 | 3.20 | 0.24 | 8.11 | 3.20 | 2.96 | ||
| Papa John's International | PZZA | 8,826 | 54.43 | 3.42 | 6.70 | 54.50 | 51.00 | ||
| Genworth Financial Cl A | GNW | 1,067,702 | 5.37 | 0.33 | 6.55 | 5.50 | 4.90 | ||
| Meritage Homes | MTH | 38,453 | 37.28 | 2.18 | 6.22 | 37.28 | 35.09 | ||
| Percentage Decliners | |||||||||
| Issue | Symbol | Volume | Last | Chg | % Chg | High | Low | ||
| Career Education | CECO | 44,665 | $3.82 | -0.89 | -18.90 | $4.71 | $3.82 | ||
| Digital River | DRIV | 20,934 | 15.36 | -2.43 | -13.66 | 17.80 | 15.21 | ||
| Polypore International | PPO | 208,129 | 32.47 | -4.69 | -12.62 | 37.16 | 31.64 | ||
| True Religion Apparel | TRLG | 185,002 | 22.94 | -3.30 | -12.58 | 26.46 | 22.26 | ||
| Array BioPharma | ARRY | 144,638 | 4.54 | -0.60 | -11.67 | 5.33 | 4.38 | ||
| TTM Technologies | TTMI | 13,472 | 9.83 | -1.11 | -10.15 | 10.95 | 9.50 | ||
| DreamWorks Animation SKG Cl A | DWA | 21,247 | 17.75 | -1.45 | -7.55 | 19.29 | 16.60 | ||
