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Wednesday, September 12, 2012

D day for stock market - QE3 or No QE3 ?

Fed Chairman has been giving hope to the market that he is ready to act if economy worsen. This economy has got stagnant and not moving in the direction it should, but does the stock market cares. The answer is NO. Robo computer picks up headline and look for keyword such as easing, QE, LTRO, Bond buying and so on. So if Fed reiterate he is ready to act and talk about easing, it will be same BS rally, no matter his speech is repeated 8 month in a row and as boring as it sounded first time. So get ready for a volatile day and the main event begins at 12.30 pm EST followed by Fed speech at 2.15 pm EST.

Based on the chart,  Dow was supposed to open low, but the fair value for Dow jones is -33, which means Dow jones will open higher by 33 point plus the future value. 

Dow jones now expected to open higher because of the fair value of -33  Dow jones closed in bearish zone.
For bullish sentiment to continue, Dow needs to break 13,335 and S&P500 needs to break 1438.
For bearish sentiment to continue, Dow needs to break 13,317 and S&P500 needs to break 1434

Economy calendar
SessionTimeCurrencyEventImpactActualForecastPrev.
  0:15CHFProducer & Import pricesmed -0.1-0.3
  0:15CHFProducer & Import pricesmed -0.7-1.8
  0:30CHFSNB - Libor Ratehigh 00
  0:30CHFSNB monetary policy assessmenthigh   
  0:30CHFMinimum EUR/CHF exchange ratelow  1.2
   1:00EURECB publishes monthly bulletinlow   
   2:00EURLabour cost indexlow 1.62
  5:30EURGerman Deputy President of Bundesbank Lautenschlaeger to attend panel discussion at International Conference on Banking Supervisionlow   
  5:30CADHouse Price Indexlow 0.10.2
  5:30USDInitial Claimsmed 370365
  5:30USDPPI (ex Food & Energy)med 0.20.4
  5:30CADCapacity Utilisationlow 81.180.7
  5:30USDPPIhigh 1.20.3
  6:30World Bank releases global financial report on role of statelow   
  7:30IMF holds scheduled news briefingmed   
   9:30USDFOMC - Fed Funds Ratehigh 0.250.25
   11:00USDBudgetmed -160-69.6
   11:15USDFederal Reserve Chairman Bernanke to give press conference following FOMC Announcementhigh   
   15:45NZDFood Pricemed  0.2
  17:00USDUnder Secretary for Domestic Finance Miller speaks at American banker conferencelow   
  17:00EURECOFIN Meetingmed   
  17:00EUREuro-Area FinMins and Central Bankers meet (to 15 Sep)med   
  21:30JPYCapacity Utilisationlow  -2.3
  21:30JPYIndustrial production (Final)med  -1.2
  21:30JPYIndustrial Production (Final)low  -1
All earnings releases
Company NameTimeTranscriptWall St
EPS Est($)
Actual
EPS($)
ANALOGIC CORP  ALOG After Market CloseN/A0.69N/A
CHINA FIN ONLIN  JRJC After Market CloseN/AN/AN/A
CHINA GREEN AGR  CGA Before OpenN/AN/AN/A
COUNTERPATH CP  CPAH Before OpenN/A-0.01N/A
GENTIUM SPA-ADR  GENT Before OpenN/A-0.04N/A
K12 INC  LRN Before OpenN/A-0.04N/A
LAKELAND INDS  LAKE After Market CloseN/A0.08N/A
LONGWEI PETROLM  LPH After Market CloseN/AN/AN/A
PIER 1 IMPORTS  PIR Before OpenN/A0.19N/A
SED INTL HLDGS  SED After Market CloseN/AN/AN/A