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Monday, September 17, 2012

How to trade Fed's QE infinity ?

For past 9 month stock market was rallying on the hope of fed QE hope and fed didn't disappoint by giving unlimited QE or QE infinity. There is one major risk to QE infinity and that is Bernanke and Obama losing their job. QE infinity will lead to inflation and gas prices will soar to $6 and if it happens Obama and Bernanke will be kicked out of the office in coming election this November. So the game plan for Fed or major market maker who want Bernanke and Obama to be back in the office will be to keep gas prices low and at the same time they would like to keep market flat. So if thats the game plan then buy ERY or DUG and short ERX and DIG. Also, I expect GLD, AGQ, SLV to decline and ZSL, GLL to rise.

Tomorrow market is expected to open high or rally because of ECB fine tuning operation. So, don't be surprise if market rally for silly rumor in the middle of the day. In last hour, from extremely bearish zone, Dow, S&P500 and Nasdaq managed to move above 200 ma as shown in the chart below.

Dow jones closed in bearish zone but its expected to open higher because of ECB fine tuning operation. I expect sell off at the close.

For bearish sentiment to continue, dow needs to break 13,520 resistance followed by 13,487 and for Bullish sentiment to continue, Dow needs to break 13,575 followed by 13,606.
For bearish sentiment to continue, it needs to break 13520 followed 13487. 

SessionTimeCurrencyEventImpactActualForecastPrev.
1:30GBPCPIhigh2.52.6
1:30GBPCPIhigh0.50.1
1:30GBPONS House Priceslow2.12.3
2:00EURGerman ZEW (Current Conditions)high1818.2
2:00EURZEW (Economic Sentiment)low-21.2
2:00EURGerman ZEW (Economic Sentiment)high-20-25.5
5:00USDFed's Evans speaks on "Perspectives on Current Economic Issues" before a Bank of Ann Arbor meetinglow
5:30USDCurrent Accountmed-125-137.3
6:00USDNet Long-term TICS Flowslow9.3
7:00USDNAHB Builders surveymed3837
8:30USDFed's Dudley speaks on regional and national economic conditions at Morris County Chamber of Commercelow
13:30USDFed's Dudley speaks economic conditions in New Jersey and the US economic outlooklow
15:00AUDRBA, Treasury and IMF co-host conference on "Structural Change and the Rise of Asia"low
15:45NZDCurrent Accountmed-1.62-1.31
16:15USDFed's Lacker gives speech on "Maximum Employment and Monetary policy" before the Money Marketeers of New York Universitylow
17:00WTO Trade Policy Review Body Meeting of Korea (to Sep 21)low
17:00JPYBoJ MPC - Overnight Ratehigh0.10.1
17:00EURECB Governing Council Meeting hold non-rate setting meeting (to 20 Sep)med
17:30AUDWestpac-MI Leading Indexmed0.5
17:50AUDRBA Assistant Governor Kent gives speech at the "Structural Change and the Rise of Asia" conferencelow
22:00JPYLeading indicator (Final)low91.8

Earning after hour trading:
Gainers & LosersDay’s CloseAfter-HoursAfter-Hours
% Change
THCTenet Healthcare Cor...6.106.10+3.21%
SUNSunoco Inc47.9847.98+1.67%
INTUIntuit Inc60.9160.91+1.26%
DFDean Foods Co16.7416.74+1.21%
FISFidelity National In...32.5132.51+0.90%
AMDAdvanced Micro Devic...3.713.71-7.48%
CCLCarnival Corp37.2237.22-1.12%
LSILSI Corp7.457.45-0.93%
SPLSStaples Inc11.8811.88-0.67%
MUMicron Technology In...6.536.53-0.61%
Data as of 7:48pm ET
All earnings releases
Company NameTimeTranscriptWall St
EPS Est($)
Actual
EPS($)
CHINAEDU CP-ADR  CEDU After Market CloseN/A0.07N/A
FEDEX CORP  FDX Before OpenN/A1.40N/A
MANCHESTER UTD  MANU Before OpenN/A-0.02N/A
MISONIX INC  MSON N/AN/AN/AN/A
QEP COMPANY INC  QEPC N/AN/AN/AN/A
SCHIFF NUTRITN  SHF Before OpenN/A0.17N/A
VERSAR INC  VSR Before OpenN/AN/AN/A